Public Opinion

Roughly two-thirds of Americans take human-caused global warming seriously or very seriously, according to polls. While that’s a clear majority, it’s troubling that so much doubt remains, given the overwhelming consensus among climate scientists that Earth’s climate is being dangerously disrupted and that the primary cause is carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels. That a third of Americans don’t subscribe to this view isn’t terribly surprising, given that for the past decade we’ve been barraged by an aggressive, well-financed campaign to disparage the integrity of climate science and even discredit climate scientists personally. And of course, climate scientists generally can’t hire PR firms to make sure their message is heard and clearly understood.

In the context of doubt about the diagnosis, prescribing strong medicine like a carbon tax may seem quixotic. Nevertheless, when the policy options are clearly explained, a surprising number of voters express support for a carbon tax with revenue return.

While economists have been pointing to a carbon tax to as a way to fill budget gaps, simultaneously reducing CO2 emissions, we have yet to see a survey asking the public about preferred revenue sources to fill budget gaps. If a carbon tax were compared to a value added tax (or national sales tax), which has no climate benefits, we believe the public might prefer a carbon tax with its enormous climate benefits.

“Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in May 2011”

Polling of 1010 adults by Yale and George Mason University’s Center for Climate Change Communication (May 2011) found that:

1) Two thirds of Americans think global warming is happening, but nearly one out of ten is sure that global warming is not real:

- 64% think that global warming is happening. (Global warming was defined as “increases in the world’s average temperature” that “may change climate.”)

- Among that group, 81% are somewhat sure, very sure or extremely sure about it.

- 18% of those polled said they didn’t know enough to say one way or the other.

- The remaining 18% say that global warming is NOT happening. Of those, 52% ─ that is, almost 10% of all respondents ─ are “very sure” or “extremely sure” that global warming is not happening.

- Just 39% agreed that “most climate scientists think global warming is happening.”

- 40% agreed with the statement that, “[t]here is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening.”

- Just 32% think that more than 60% of climate scientists think that global warming is happening,

- 31% say they don’t know enough to say what percentage of climate scientists think global warming is happening.

2) Fewer than half think that humans are the main cause of global warming:

- 47% think global warming is “caused mostly by human activities” (a decline from a similar poll in2010, when the figure was 50%).

- 35% think global warming is “caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.”

- Just 33% think that more than 60% of climate scientists think that global warming is caused mostly by human activities.

3) Concern about future damage from global warming is declining:

- 34% think global warming will do a “great deal” or a “moderate amount” of harm to people in their community. The figure was 39% in November 2008.

- 59% think global warming will harm future generations of people “a great deal” or a “moderate amount.” The figure was 61% in November 2008.

- 41% think it’s unclear whether humans will do anything to reduce global warming. The figure declined from 51% in November 2008, suggesting increased confidence that effective action will be taken. But 18% say humans can’t reduce global warming, up from 16% in November 2008.

4) Trust in scientists is declining:

- 76% trust or strongly trust scientists as a source of information about global warming, down from 81% in November 2008.

5) Nearly half believe that new technology will “solve” global warming:

- 47% agree or strongly agree that “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes.” This figure was 30% in November 2008.

6) Yale – George Mason also surveyed opinion on policy responses, including carbon pricing:

- Policies that don’t appear to cost anything, for example those involving mandates on industry and utilities, are widely supported.

- Additional funding into research on renewable energy, including wind and solar, is supported by 84%.

- Requiring utilities to buy 20% renewable energy even if it costs an extra $100 a year per household is strongly supported by 23% and somewhat supported by an additional 43%.

- A 25 cent a gallon gasoline tax with all revenue used to reduce income taxes, is strongly supported by only 9%; 24% somewhat supported. A whopping 67% opposed this modest, revenue-neutral tax.

National Survey of American Public Opinion on Climate Change (April, 2011)

The National Survey of American Public Opinion on Climate Change (Brookings, April 2011) surveyed and compared the perceptions and preferences of 916 residents of the United States with those of 1214 Canadians. Like the Yale – George Mason survey, Brookings found that confidence about the certainty of climate science and willingness to support substantial action has declined in recent years.

Notably, Brookings found that 80% of Canadians believe global warming is happening, compared to 59% in the U.S. And they found Canadians much more willing to take aggressive action on climate and to incur additional costs to produce renewable energy. Both the Yale – George Mason poll and the Brookings survey found that belief in climate science and support for measures to address it differ strongly across partisan lines. Brookings found that 69% of Democrats believe global warming is happening while only 41% of Republicans do. In Canada, belief that human-induced global warming is real was reported for 91% of Liberals and 84% of New Democrats, but only 64% of Conservatives.

Brookings found that 56% of Americans support national cap-and-trade while 46% support higher fossil fuel taxes. In Canada, the figures are 63% for cap-and-trade and 58% for fossil fuel taxes, respectively.

Hart – U.S. Climate Task Force Survey, (December 2009)

In December 2009, Hart Associates conducted a national survey of 1002 adults on behalf of the U.S. Climate Task Force. They found that of those who support action to address global warming, 58% support a tax on carbon emissions to create incentives to reduce emissions and increase efficiency, and that provides tax refunds to individuals and households to offset the overall impact of the carbon tax. This compared to 27% who preferred a cap-and-trade option setting an overall limit on emissions, allowing companies to buy and sell permits.

The difference between these results and those of the Brookings and Yale surveys may be explained at least in part by the more detailed explanations of the policies offered in the Hart poll. This suggests that clear articulation of the benefits of a carbon tax (and the options for revenue return) could result in majority support, at least among those who are willing to support action to mitigate global warming. Achieving such articulation in America’s constrained political culture remains a difficult challenge, however.